Unlike the BAFTA nominations, which are purechaos, the Oscar nominations this morning are much more in line with expectations.The Power of the Dog, an awards favorite since last fall, leads all nominations with twelve. Craft-friendlyDunefollows with ten.West Side StoryandBelfastfollow with seven apiece. There aren’t many surprises here, except Catriona Balfe missing a Best Supporting Actress nomination forBelfast.House of Gucciwas never on solid ground, though actors favored it more than other guilds, but it’s not exactly a shocker that a divisive movie with middling box office missed the cut this year. I was sort of rooting for the chaos of a Jared Leto nomination, though. I generally like these nominations, but they’re pretty much as expected.
What is surprising? The including of Ryusuke Hamaguchi’s exquisiteDrive My Carwith four nominations: Best International Film, Best Director, Best Adapted Screenplay, and Best Picture. I LOVE THIS.Drive My Caris absolutely one of 2021’s best, and I’m glad the Academy made SO much room for it, proving thatParasiteis not a fluke, the Academy is baseline more international now than it was just a few years ago. Similarly, Penelope Cruz, not a sure thing, scored a Best Actress nomination forParallel Mothers, though Pedro Almodovar feels underappreciated, even though he has an Oscar (for 2002’sHable con ella).
On the disappointing side, I’m a bit bummed Bradley Cooper didn’t get recognized for his brief but memorable performance inLicorice Pizza. It was a smaller role, but as much as I love J.K. Simmons, I would swap him for BCoop in a heartbeat. Though I do sort of love thatBeing The Ricardoswas only recognized for acting and nothing else.
As for the Best Picture race, it remains largely unchanged. I went 8-for-10 on mypredictions, swappingThe Tragedy of Macbethandtick…tick…BOOM!forDrive My CarandNightmare Alley. I’ll take it—I like both those movies, andDrive My CarREALLY deserves it. Still,The Power of the Dogremains the frontrunner,King RichardandBelfasthave feel-good vibes,Duneis a powerful dark horse, but with no Best Director nod for Denis Villeneuve, that mountain just got a little harder to scale. As Best Picture goes to ten nominees and Best Director remains at five, the director/picture split will happen more and more, though, andDunestill got nominations for editing, cinematography, and screenplay, all key bellwethers in the Best Picture race.
Now let’s talk about the other dark horse in the room,Don’t Look Up. It scored four nominations, including Best Picture, Best Original Screenplay, and Best Editing. So we can’t ignore it, because two of the bellwethers are present. It also scored a nod for composer Nicholas Britell, and while I will never argue with Britell being recognized for anything, Ariana Grande’s song, “Just Look Up”, was not nominated, and that IS the best movie song of the year (since “Edgar’s Prayer” fromBarb and Starwas ineligible). Vulture’s Alison Willmore proposed afrighteningly believable scenarioin whichDon’t Look Upcould win Best Picture, noting its social issues-appeal, Movie Star appeal, and its Netflix-accessibility appeal.
All jokes aside, it is a compelling argument. I definitely won’t countDon’t Look Upout, though I would note thatDunehas Movie Star appeal, HBO Max-accessibility appeal, and populist appeal. It also has all those craft nominations, indicating strong support across the Academy. I still think this isThe Power of the Dog’s year, and we could go back-to-back with women walking away with Best Director if Jane Campion comes through—AS SHE SHOULD—butDuneandDon’t Look Upwill haunt us for the rest of awards season.
Check out the complete list of nomineeshere.
