这个奖项季节是1)无限的,以及2)混乱。戏剧性的势头转变,前体奖颁奖典礼上的狂野提名,比赛太接近了 - 这些奥斯卡是如此混乱,应被称为Chaoscars。
Predicting Oscar wins is tougher than usual for a number of reasons, ranging from the ongoing pandemic still resulting in hurly-burly film releases and questions about what and how much the Academy has actually seen, to the recently expanded membership still being a question mark when it comes to taste, to the general air of chaos all awards season resulting in dramatic momentum shifts and truly unpredictable categories (plus this year is the return the ten-film Best Picture category). Generally, when I do this, I attempt to think like an Oscar voter, considering not what I WANT to win, but how I think the Academy will vote given their history and taste. This year, the Oscars feel like a busted March Madness bracket, and I’m tempted to just make my picks as chaotic as possible, in the hopes that the Oscars deliver maximum drama. I shall try to control myself, and make earnest picks, but just know I am rooting for chaos to consume us all on Sunday night.
Best Picture
但是,事实证明,我怀疑这是一笔近的投票。狗的力量是本赛季大部分时间的推定最爱,但是结尾在适当的时候达到顶峰,它的好处是在人们寻找令人振奋的逃避现实的时候成为一部好电影。这将留下一个很好的印象,即选民的思想徘徊。只是不要称呼它绿书.
Favorite:结尾
Upset:狗的力量
黑马:King Richard
The Rest:
贝尔法斯特
Don't Look Up
开我的车
Dune
Licorice Pizza
噩梦巷
西侧的故事
最佳导演
Despite recent controversy, this is still Jane Campion’s to lose, which would make her just the third woman to win, and the first time—if she does win—Best Director will be handed from one woman to another.
Favorite: Jane Campion –狗的力量
沮丧:肯尼斯·布拉纳(Kenneth Branagh) -贝尔法斯特
黑马:史蒂文·斯皮尔伯格(Steven Spielberg) -西侧的故事
The Rest:
保罗·托马斯·安德森(Paul Thomas Anderson) -Licorice Pizza
ryûsukehamaguchi -开我的车
Best Actress
我只是无法动摇佩内洛普·克鲁兹(Penelope Cruz)会震惊我们所有人的感觉,并真正使这些偶然。
最喜欢:佩内洛普·克鲁兹(Penelope Cruz) -Parallel Mothers
Upset: Jessica Chastain –塔米·费耶的眼睛
黑马:Kristen Stewart –斯宾塞
The Rest:
奥利维亚·科尔曼(Olivia Colman) -The Lost Daughter
Nicole Kidman –Being the Ricardos
Best Actor
Will Smith is virtually unstoppable at this point.
最喜欢的:威尔·史密斯 -King Richard
Upset: Benedict Cumberbatch –狗的力量
黑马:Andrew Garfield –tick,tick…繁荣!
The Rest:
Denzel Washington –The Tragedy of Macbeth
哈维尔·巴德姆(Javier Bardem) -Being the Ricardos
最好的支持演员
The two safest bets in your Oscar pool are Troy Kotsur…
Favorite: Troy Kotsur –结尾
Upset: Kodi Smit-McPhee –狗的力量
黑马:Ciaran Hinds -贝尔法斯特
The Rest:
Jesse Plemons –狗的力量
J.K.西蒙斯 -Being the Ricardos
最佳女配角
…and Ariana DeBose.
Favorite: Ariana DeBose –西侧的故事
沮丧:Aunjanue Ellis -King Richard
黑马:Kirsten Dunst –狗的力量
The Rest:
Jessie Buckley –The Lost Daughter
Judi Dench –贝尔法斯特
最佳原始剧本
我怀疑这是另一个类别,尽管Don’t Look Up赢得了WGA奖,我怀疑它归结于PTA和肯尼斯爵士。
Favorite: Kenneth Branagh –贝尔法斯特
Upset: Paul Thomas Anderson –Licorice Pizza
黑马:Joachim Trier和Eksil Vogt -世界上最糟糕的人
The Rest:
Aaron Sorkin and David Sirota –Don’t Look Up
Zach Baylin -King Richard
Best Adapted Screenplay
This is one of the most chaotic, too close to call categories, but it is also a preview of Best Picture. The screenplay awards are usually handed out early in the show, and if结尾失败了,它的最佳图片希望结束了,但是如果赢了,最好的画面将是一个钉子。
Favorite: Sian Heder –结尾
Upset: Jane Campion –狗的力量
黑马:Maggie Gyllenhaal –The Lost Daughter
The Rest:
Jon Spaihts and Denis Villeneuve and Eric Roth –Dune
Ryusuke Hamaguchi,Takamasa OE -开我的车
最好的编辑
这是在电视转播开始之前分发的类别之一,但这也是进入奥斯卡之夜最紧迫的比赛之一。在过去,最佳编辑和最佳图片通常是齐头并进的,但是有十名最佳图片提名,在这里只有5张提名人,这些类别之间可能会有更多的分裂,就像我预计今年一样。
最喜欢的:Myron Kerstein和Andrew Weisblum -tick,tick…繁荣!
沮丧:乔·沃克(Joe Walker) -Dune
黑马:Hank Corwin –Don’t Look Up
The Rest:
帕梅拉·马丁(Pamela Martin) -King Richard
Peter Sciberras –狗的力量
最佳摄影
Should she win, Ari Wegner would be the first woman to win this category, but Greig Fraser, who also lensed蝙蝠侠, has been building momentum over the last month. Given that he did back-to-back super stylish blockbusters, a feat his peers recognize, I think he has the edge.
最喜欢的:格里格·弗雷泽(Greig Fraser) -Dune
Upset: Ari Wegner –狗的力量
黑马:Janusz Kaminski –西侧的故事
The Rest:
丹·拉斯森(Dan Laustsen) -噩梦巷
Bruno Delbonnel -The Tragedy of Macbeth
Best Score
汉斯·齐默尔(Hans Zimmer)是最喜欢的exposé最高得分的作曲家如何使用音乐代笔来抽出他们的电影分数。这可能解释了为什么Zimmer在过去二十年中的音乐听起来一样的原因。
Favorite: Hans Zimmer –Dune
Upset: Jonny Greenwood –狗的力量
黑马:Germaine Franco -Encanto
The Rest:
尼古拉斯·布里特尔(Nicholas Britell) -Don’t Look Up
Alberto Iglesias –Parallel Mothers
最佳原创歌曲
It feels weird to go against Beyoncé, but Bond songs are pretty much automatic wins, even when they’re not good, and “No Time To Die” is pretty good, and theEncanto配乐已经达到了几个月的排行榜,使其具有流行优势(此外还有Lin-Manuel Miranda Boost)。
最喜欢的:“没有时间死” -没有时间死
Upset: “Dos Oruguitas” –Encanto
黑马:“Be Alive” –King Richard
The Rest:
“Down To Joy” –贝尔法斯特
“Somehow You Do” –四天
最佳服装设计
This will be Jenny Bevan’s third Oscar.
Favorite:Cruella
Upset:Cyrano
黑马:Dune
The Rest:
噩梦巷
西侧的故事
最佳国际电影
时间开我的车闪耀。
Favorite:开我的车
Upset:世界上最糟糕的人
黑马:Flee
The Rest:
The Hand of God
Lunana: A Yak in the Classroom
最佳动画故事片
我开玩笑地称之为“皮克斯的年度奥斯卡”的类别是年度最混乱的一类,对皮克斯来说不是一个锁。
Favorite:Encanto
Upset:米切尔与机器
黑马:Flee
The Rest:
卢卡
拉亚和最后一条龙
最佳纪录片
Questlove的灵魂的夏日is great and lauded, but triple-nomineeFleefeels like the best fit to win in this category.
Favorite:Flee
Upset:灵魂的夏日(或者,当革命无法电视转播时)
黑马:阿提卡
The Rest:
提升
用火写
Best Sound
这些都是可靠的提名Duneor Bond, and I leanDune由于动作和沉思序列的结合,这使有趣的安静保持平衡。
Favorite:Dune
Upset:没有时间死
黑马:西侧的故事
The Rest:
贝尔法斯特
狗的力量
Best Production Design
The craft categories are whereDunewill shine.
Favorite:Dune
Upset:噩梦巷
黑马:西侧的故事
The Rest:
狗的力量
The Tragedy of Macbeth
最好的化妆和发型
This is another category that I suspect is closer than we’d expect.Tammy Faye很明显,考虑到庞大数量的假肢吗and wiggery, but whileComing 2 America是一部垃圾电影,具有独特的视觉风格和精美的个人外观。
Favorite:塔米·费耶的眼睛
Upset:Coming 2 America
黑马:Cruella
The Rest:
Dune
古奇之家
Best Visual Effects
One thing to know about this category is that despite being nominated virtually every year since 2009, Marvel has never won a VFX Oscar, not even forBlack Panther,在其他手工艺类别中获胜。奇迹偏见是真实的,会喜欢Dune.
Favorite:Dune
Upset:蜘蛛侠:没办法回家
黑马:自由的家伙
The Rest:
没有时间死
香奇和十个戒指的传说
最佳动画短片
啊,短裤,最有可能f-ck升级您的奥斯卡奖。
Favorite:罗宾·罗宾
Upset:Boxballet
黑马:The Windshield Wiper
The Rest:
艺术事务
Bestia
Best Live Action Short Film
Favorite:The Long Goodbye
Upset:The Dress
黑马:Ala Kachuu - Take and Run
The Rest:
On My Mind
Please Hold
Best Documentary Short Film
Favorite:篮球女王
Upset:听到
黑马:Three Songs for Benazir
The Rest:
Lead Me Home
当我们成为欺凌者